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28
Aug
Before coming to market, initial public offerings (IPOs) must issue a prospectus describing the company and its risks. Virtually every prospectus I’ve ever seen is written in unreadable legalese. I doubt any analysts not associated with the investment banks that wrote them bother to even glance at them. The investment banks are paid unbelievable sums to underwrite IPOs. Underwriters can make as much as $20 billion a year issuing IPOs.
After reading the prospectus, the analyst produces reports promoting the issue. The report gets picked up in the chat rooms and the hype is on. IPO prices can be manipulated in many ways by the issuers and the underwriters. In addition to analyst reports, popular IPOs are sold by allocation only to those willing to either buy additional shares after the IPO or give additional business to the underwriters. With buyers in place before the initial offering, the offering price can be raised increasing returns to the issuer and the underwriter. When the price pops on the opening, insiders are given the opportunity to unload shares at tremendous profits.
The only non-insiders who are happy with IPOs are volatility junkies. In a bull market, many IPOs double and triple in price the day of the offering. When their popularity wanes, they drop back to the initial price or lower. In a bear market, new IPOs are rare. The few that come to market often collapse below the IPO price. However, the investment bankers retain their billions of profits.
IPOs can be thrilling and depressing. The winners make great chat on the Internet and conversation at parties. Every once in a while, a winner will grow into a great company such as Microsoft. The losers are just part of the gamble for real speculators. Most investors will find IPOs outside their comfort zone.
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