Moreover, the partnership must be voluntary. If a critical person or group chooses not to participate, that should not prevent the partnership from forming. It simply means that some elements have not moved along the Partnership Continuum at the same rate as others. In the case involving the U.S. Postal Service, one of the largest unions refused to partner with management in its effort to improve the workplace environment. But that didn’t stop managers from creating a partnership with others who shared a mutual interest. Like the Postal Service, you may want to keep the door open to potential partners who declined the initial offer. They may still have valuable insight and contribute to the overall success of the partnership.

I once consulted with an organization in which the top executives only paid lip service to the partnership. Although they spent no energy on developing it, they did stage a public relations campaign and received recognition for being innovative. What they didn’t do was show support for and participate in the changes they had instituted. Consequently, the partnership dissolved. Leadership’s enthusiasm must be authentic; otherwise, people will feel exploited and withdraw their support.

Active support of leaders. Appropriate team membership with equal participation. Common objectives. Clear boundaries and scope. Consensus and openness. Trust and mutual benefits.

Over the years we have come to understand why some partnerships flourish and some wither and die on the vine. This final article summarizes some of the “shoulds” and “should-nots” of forming an alliance. Let’s start with the should-nots.

MOST COMMON REASONS PARTNERSHIPS FAIL:Inappropriate team membership. Failure to address internal/external partnership issues. Inability to create a Win-Win Orientation in building common platforms. Failure of internal departments to support organizational partnership due to self-interest. Lack of internal partnerships, resulting in poor crossfunctional coordination.

Industrial production is compared with default rates. A better IP is associated with increased profitability and cash flow situation of companies. This implies a better access to the capital markets and therefore lowers liquidity risk. As a result default rates will fall when IP rises and this translates directly into tighter spreads.

A robust negative correlation of around 0.75 exists between Moody’s trailing 12-month issuer-based default rate and the US year-over-year production for the period 1988–2003.

Investors who seek certainty are attracted to these investment gurus. The gurus sell expensive newsletters and give expensive seminars. Investors who cannot handle the unmanageability and powerlessness in stock investing are willing to pay guru fees. Besides fees, technical analysis usually requires much buying and selling that incurs commissions and spreads.

Usually, followers find the gurus at the height of their popularity. This is when they are receiving the most publicity and are near the end of their hot streak. New converts then plunge into the inevitable cold streak and lose large sums of money.Emotion cannot be avoided in investing. We are all attached to our money. When values soar, our egos soar. Huge losses plummet all of us into anxiety, depression, regrets, resentments, and free-floating fear. No investment system will ever take all the emotion out of investing. The trick is to find investments within your emotional comfort zone. If you find technical analysis fun, despite recurring losses, then it is in your comfort zone. If you find the losses depress you too much, technical analysis is not within your comfort zone.

Most believe a thorough study of stock price and volume patterns alone should allow the prediction of future prices. Some technical analysts study more factors than price and volume. All build elaborate charts and read them for clues to the future. Often, extensive computer modeling and game playing systems are employed. Economic factors, stockbroker pressure, the brother-in-law’s inside information, the CEO’s cold, and other factors are ignored.

Technical analysis is great for number people. You can play with endless formulas to analyze past trends hoping to predict the future. However, technical analysis is best employed on other people’s money. Then you can remain objective and emotionless. All the studies of technical analysis show that it is ineffective. Used on your own money, you are likely to have strong feelings as losses mount.

After reading the prospectus, the analyst produces reports promoting the  issue. The report gets picked up in the chat rooms and the hype is on.  IPO prices can be manipulated in many ways by the issuers and the  underwriters. In addition to analyst reports, popular IPOs are sold by allocation  only to those willing to either buy additional shares after the IPO or  give additional business to the underwriters. With buyers in place before the  initial offering, the offering price can be raised increasing returns to the  issuer and the underwriter. When the price pops on the opening, insiders are  given the opportunity to unload shares at tremendous profits.

The only non-insiders who are happy with IPOs are volatility junkies. In  a bull market, many IPOs double and triple in price the day of the offering.  When their popularity wanes, they drop back to the initial price or lower. In  a bear market, new IPOs are rare. The few that come to market often  collapse below the IPO price. However, the investment bankers retain their  billions of profits.

IPOs can be thrilling and depressing. The winners make great chat on  the Internet and conversation at parties. Every once in a while, a winner  will grow into a great company such as Microsoft. The losers are just part  of the gamble for real speculators. Most investors will find IPOs outside  their comfort zone.

Insurance salespeople may manipulate investors into high-commission, highsurrender fee, and inappropriate variable annuities. The chosen mutual fund might have huge loads and high minimums. The online brokerage Web site may freeze during the market crash.

Unmanageability can also be subtle. For example, savers want to own money market funds in their 401(k) accounts. Often the company will only match their savings with company stock and will encourage them to convert their money market funds into more company stock. Then office politics dictate that anyone wishing to be promoted buy company stock in the 401(k) and accept options on company stock as compensation.